On September 28, 2026, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) held Express Entry Draw #445, issuing 733 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to candidates in the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score was 725.
The story here is not the cut-off – at 725, it is ordinary PNP noise, nine points off the last round, and it cleared the entire nomination pool as every recent PNP round has. The story is the size. At 733 invitations, this is the largest PNP round since June, and it lands at exactly the moment the wider system was supposed to be slowing down. PNP is not slowing. It is accelerating – and that tells you something useful about where the reliable opportunity sits for the rest of 2026. Below, the Earnest Immigration team explains it.
Express Entry Draw #445 at a Glance
| Detail | Information |
| Draw number | #445 |
| Date | September 28, 2026 |
| Program | Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) |
| Invitations issued | 733 |
| CRS cut-off score | 725 |
| Implied base score (minus 600-pt nomination) | 125 |
| Tie-breaking rule | September 17, 2026 at 01:36:17 UTC |
| Draw position in 2026 | 57th Express Entry round; 19th PNP round |
| Previous PNP draw | Draw #442 – September 14, 2026 – 576 ITAs at CRS 734 |
| Application deadline | 60 days from the date of the invitation |
The Number That Matters Is 733, Not 725
Regular readers of this series know the drill on the cut-off, so we will keep it brief. A provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points, every candidate in a PNP round holds one, and the draw invites nearly all of them – so the published cut-off simply reports the lowest base score that happened to be in the pool, not a bar anyone competed against. At 725, the lowest invited base score was 125. The nine-point dip from the last round is pool-composition noise, nothing more. As of September 27 there were 728 nomination holders in the pool; IRCC issued 733 ITAs. The pool was cleared, for the fifth PNP round running.
With that out of the way, look at the invitation count. 733 is the largest PNP round since June 22, when IRCC issued 955. It is up sharply from the 442, 507, 562, and 576 of the preceding PNP rounds. In a program whose draw size is set entirely by how many nominations provinces have fed into the pool, a 733-invitation round means one thing: provinces are issuing substantially more nominations than they were a month ago.
PNP Is Accelerating, Not Slowing
This matters because it cuts against the prevailing forecast. IRCC front-loaded an enormous volume of invitations into the first half of 2026, and the widely held expectation – one we share for the system as a whole – is that overall draw volumes will ease through the final months of the year. For most draw types, that slowdown is a reasonable planning assumption.
PNP is the exception, and this draw is the evidence. Rather than contracting, PNP draw sizes have been climbing: 442 in mid-August, then 562, 576, and now 733. The nomination pool itself has grown in step – from 500 nomination holders ahead of the August 4 round to 728 ahead of this one. More nominations are entering the system, not fewer.
The reason is supply, and it is traceable. Several provinces – British Columbia and Alberta among them – received additional nomination allocation from the federal government earlier in the year. That extra allocation is now converting into issued nominations, which flow into the Express Entry pool, which drives larger PNP rounds. While category-based and general activity may taper as IRCC paces itself toward year-end targets, the provincial pipeline is running in the opposite direction. For a candidate, that divergence is the single most important strategic fact in this draw.
The Most Predictable Route in a Volatile Year
Step back and look at 2026 as a whole, and PNP stands out for a quality that is easy to overlook: reliability.
Consider how erratic everything else has been. The Canadian Experience Class cut-off shifted onto a higher plateau mid-year, climbing from the 507–518 band into the 519–523 range. French-language proficiency surged to become the largest category in August, then went quiet for weeks. The small occupation categories – physicians, senior managers, transport, military – have fired at unpredictable intervals, some only once all year. A candidate trying to time any of those is guessing.
PNP, by contrast, has been metronomic. This is the 19th PNP-targeted round of 2026, they arrive at roughly two-week intervals, and every recent one has cleared the entire nomination pool. The cut-off bounces around, but the behaviour does not: if you hold a valid nomination, a draw is coming within about two weeks, and it will almost certainly take you.
Five Rounds, the Pool Empties Every Time
| PNP round | Nomination holders in pool | ITAs issued | Cut-off | Outcome |
| #431 – Aug 4 | 500 | 507 | 768 | Pool cleared |
| #435 – Aug 17 | 439 | 442 | 760 | Pool cleared |
| #438 – Aug 31 | 559 | 562 | 697 | Pool cleared |
| #442 – Sep 14 | 574 | 576 | 734 | Pool cleared |
| #445 – Sep 28 | 728 | 733 | 725 | Pool cleared |
Read the “nomination holders” column top to bottom: 500, 439, 559, 574, 728. The pool is growing, and the draw clears it every time. The cut-off column (768, 760, 697, 734, 725) zigzags with no trend – because, as this series has shown across all five rounds, it is a description of who was in the pool, not a competitive bar. The signal is in the volume, not the score.
PNP Draws Across 2026
| Draw | Date | ITAs | CRS |
| – (June) | June 22, 2026 | 955 | 730 |
| #427 | July 20, 2026 | 511 | 744 |
| #431 | August 4, 2026 | 507 | 768 |
| #435 | August 17, 2026 | 442 | 760 |
| #438 | August 31, 2026 | 562 | 697 |
| #442 | September 14, 2026 | 576 | 734 |
| #445 | September 28, 2026 | 733 | 725 |
IRCC has now issued 9,270 PNP ITAs across 19 rounds in 2026. After a mid-year dip into the 440–580 range, draw sizes are climbing again, with this round the largest since June. The cut-off range (697 to 768 across these rounds) continues to reflect pool composition rather than competition.
If You Received an ITA in Draw #445
You have 60 days from the date of your invitation to submit a complete permanent residence application. Work through the following in order – the police certificates and medical exam are the items most likely to break the deadline.
- Accept the invitation in your IRCC secure account and record your exact 60-day deadline.
- Confirm your provincial nomination certificate is still valid. Contact the nominating province immediately if the expiry date is anywhere near your submission window – a lapsed nomination invalidates the basis of your invitation.
- Request police certificates from every country where you have lived six months or more since age 18. Start the same day; some jurisdictions take six to eight weeks.
- Book your medical exam with an IRCC-approved panel physician. If you hold a valid exam from a prior application, confirm it is still within its validity period before rebooking.
- Assemble employment evidence: reference letters on company letterhead stating job title, NOC-relevant duties, hours per week, salary, and employment dates.
- Arrange certified translations for any document not in English or French.
- Budget the fees. As of April 30, 2026, an economic-class principal applicant pays $990 in processing fees plus a $600 Right of Permanent Residence Fee – $1,590 in total. Biometrics and accompanying family members are additional.
IRCC currently processes Express Entry-linked PNP applications in about seven months, so a candidate who submits promptly should plan for a permanent residence decision in the first half of 2027.
If You Do Not Yet Have a Nomination
This draw was not open to you, but it carries an unusually clear message: the provincial route is widening, not narrowing. With allocation top-ups converting into more nominations and PNP draws growing while other draw types are expected to ease, a nomination is arguably the strongest position to be working toward in the final stretch of 2026.
The catch, as always, is that securing the nomination is the selective part. Provinces set their own priorities and target candidates by occupation, work experience, language ability, location, or ties to the province, and many streams require a job offer or in-province experience. The growing allocation does not make nominations easy – it makes more of them available to candidates who fit specific provincial criteria. The move is to identify the streams you genuinely qualify for and pursue them deliberately, rather than applying everywhere.
Run the alternatives in parallel while you do. Canadian work experience with a competitive CRS keeps the Canadian Experience Class open, though its cut-off now sits around 519. Strong French opens the French-language category, which clears more than 100 points lower. An eligible occupation may fit a category such as healthcare, which offers a stable mid-470s cut-off. A nomination is the strongest single move, but it belongs inside a broader strategy.
How Earnest Immigration Can Help
PNP-linked permanent residence applications are unforgiving on documentation. The nomination has to be valid at submission, the work history has to map cleanly to the NOC you claimed, and the 60-day clock does not pause for a missing police certificate.
As a CICC-regulated, RCIC-licensed firm, Earnest Immigration supports candidates at every stage:
- Assessing which provincial streams you realistically qualify for – especially valuable now, as allocation increases reopen room in specific streams
- Building and optimising your Express Entry profile so your CRS reflects everything you can legitimately claim
- Reviewing nomination validity and documentation before submission
- Preparing a complete, deadline-proof permanent residence application after an ITA
- Weighing PNP, CEC, and category-based routes against each other for your specific profile
If you hold a nomination and want to know where you stand after Draw #445 – or you are working toward one – book a consultation with our team.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the CRS cut-off for Express Entry Draw #445?
The minimum CRS score for Draw #445 on September 28, 2026 was 725. The 733 figure often seen refers to the number of invitations issued, not the score. Because the draw cleared nearly all nomination holders, the 725 cut-off reflects the lowest base score present in the pool, not a competitive threshold.
How many invitations were issued in Draw #445?
IRCC issued 733 Invitations to Apply to Provincial Nominee Program candidates – the largest PNP round since June 22, 2026.
Why was this PNP draw so much bigger than recent ones?
PNP draw size is set by how many nominations provinces have fed into the pool. Several provinces, including British Columbia and Alberta, received additional nomination allocation earlier in 2026, and that allocation is now converting into more issued nominations – producing larger draws.
Did this draw invite every nomination holder?
Very nearly. As of September 27, there were 728 candidates scoring above 600 (nomination holders) in the pool, and IRCC issued 733 ITAs – effectively clearing the sub-pool, as the four previous PNP rounds also did.
Why did the cut-off drop from 734 to 725?
Pool-composition noise, not a trend. Both rounds cleared the pool, so no one was competing on score. The September 28 nomination holders simply carried marginally lower base scores than the September 14 group. PNP cut-offs have zigzagged between 697 and 768 all year without direction.
Are PNP draws slowing down for the rest of 2026?
The opposite, so far. While overall Express Entry volumes are expected to ease late in the year, PNP draw sizes have been climbing (442, then 562, 576, and now 733), driven by rising provincial nomination supply. PNP has been the most consistent and predictable draw type of 2026.
I have a valid nomination but was not invited. Why?
With the pool cleared five rounds running, almost every valid nomination holder should have received an invitation. A missed ITA usually indicates an expired nomination certificate, a lapsed language result, or an incomplete profile field – not an insufficient score. Check your profile immediately.
How long do I have to apply after receiving an ITA?
You have 60 days from the date of your invitation to submit a complete permanent residence application. Missing the deadline returns you to the pool.
What does a PR application cost in 2026?
As of April 30, 2026, an economic-class principal applicant pays $990 in processing fees plus a $600 Right of Permanent Residence Fee – $1,590 in total. Biometrics and accompanying family members cost extra.
Talk to a Licensed Consultant
Earnest Immigration and Citizenship Services Inc. is a CICC-regulated, RCIC-licensed Canadian immigration consultancy with offices in Windsor, Ontario and Regina, Saskatchewan, serving clients across North America and North India.
Book a consultation to have your Express Entry profile and provincial nomination options assessed by a licensed consultant.
